Keeping track of the TARP

TARP COP: Get tough on banks

The top cop tracking the $700 billion bailout program said Monday that he's concerned federal officials are ignoring his proposals for preventing tax dollars from being wasted or pilfered.

Neil Barofsky, the special inspector general overseeing the Troubled Asset Relief Program, released a 260-page report detailing a long list of concerns about government efforts to prop up hundreds of banks, Wall Street firms and auto companies.

It's like deja vu all over again

It's great to see that Wall St. has gotten over the Great Hiccup of 2008 and it's back to business as usual:

Morgan Stanley Plans to Turn Downgraded Loan CDO Into AAA Bonds

July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley plans to repackage a downgraded collateralized debt obligation backed by leveraged loans into new securities with AAA ratings in the first transaction of its kind, said two people familiar with the sale.

Morgan Stanley is selling $87.1 million of securities that it expects to receive top AAA ratings and $42.9 million of notes graded Baa2, the second-lowest investment grade by Moody’s Investors Service, according to marketing documents obtained by Bloomberg News. The bonds were created from Greywolf CLO I Ltd., a CDO arranged in January 2007 by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and managed by Greywolf Capital Management LP, an investment firm based in Purchase, New York.

Testing the waters

One of my current concerns as I voiced in a previous post is that the Obama administration may try to take over the Federal Reserve by using the strong arm of a Democratic Congress. Looks like they may be testing the waters:

Bloomberg article: Fed Said to Retreat From Seeking Power to Sell Its Own Bills

At the House Budget hearing, a lawmaker brought up the idea of making Fed district-bank presidents subject to Senate confirmation. Currently the presidents are nominated by the banks’ boards of directors and approved by the U.S.-appointed Fed governors in Washington.

It's official: Congress and the SEC are insane

Insanity has been defined as the repetition of the same task with the expectation of a different result. If that's the case, then the SEC and Congress offer a text book example:

US Lawmakers Push Short-Selling Changes Following Report

A bipartisan group of U.S. senators said the SEC needs to consider new restrictions to help quell naked short selling, including a possible requirement that short sellers borrow shares before they try and sell a stock short. Naked short selling occurs when a trader sells shares that are not actually in their possession, potentially creating downward pressure on the price of shares.
"Unless the SEC can develop an appropriate alternative, a strict pre-borrow requirement may be the only way to adequately protect shareholders' rights," Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa said in a joint release with Sen. Carl Leving, D- Mich., and Sen. Arlen Specter, D-Penn.

Observing the weathervane

This quote summarizes this week’s sentiment rather succinctly: "There will likely be a growing steady recognition that in trying to prevent a Depression, the transfer of risk has been shifted from the private sector to the public purses and this may create a longer, more drawn out problem."

• Geithner admits overnight that the US credit rating is in jeopardy in light of our heavy issuance
• PIMCO's Bill Gross said the U.S. will eventually lose its AAA rating
  
• Moody's did say Thursday it is comfortable with the triple-A sovereign rating on the United States, but it is not guaranteed forever
• Goldman Sachs said the hike in oil prices this week was due to real oil market fundamentals and not just hedging against a weak dollar and equity market rallies. "The oil market was shocked by disruptions in Nigeria, refinery problems in the U.S. and a strong gasoline market," Goldman said in a research note. (Not sure why they think they have any credibility. Last year when oil was at $140/bbl they were calling for $200/bbl by year end. Their prop desk was probably getting short on the call, but I digress...--Ed)
• US Treasury was getting hit hard at the end of the day yesterday as the market was getting ready for big new supply coming next week - $101B of fresh Treasuries to be auctioned
• WAPO reported that the Obama administration is preparing to send GM into bankruptcy as early as the end of next week under a plan that would give the auto maker tens of billions of dollars more in public financing
• Mastercard will lose more than half of a $59B portfolio of debit-card users after JPMorgan Chase & Co. decided to shift more business to Visa
  
• The FDIC seized BKUNA, the 34th bank failure of the year, with $12.8B in assets, $8.6B in deposits and 85 branches
• AIG announced that Chairman and CEO Edward Liddy will step down and also proposed a 1-for-20 reverse stock split

I think that at some point in the not too distant future the Obama Administration, with the help of Congress, will attempt to take over the Fed. I bet the majority of Americans will see nothing wrong with that, at least the ones who have no idea (and don't care to have one) what the Federal Reserve system is and why it was created in the first place.

The elephant in the room

Bruce Bartlett at Forbes does a good job of quantifying exactly what it would take to fully fund all of our upcoming Social Security and Medicare liabilities.

The 81% Tax Increase

Most Americans believe that the Social Security trust fund contains a pot of money that is sitting somewhere earning interest to pay their benefits when they retire. On paper this is true; somewhere in a Treasury Department ledger there are $2.4 trillion worth of assets labeled "Social Security trust fund."

The problem is that by law 100% of these "assets" are invested in Treasury securities. Therefore, the trust fund does not have any actual resources with which to pay Social Security benefits. It's as if you wrote an IOU to yourself; no matter how large the IOU is it doesn't increase your net worth.

Ask me no questions, I'll tell you no lies

Greenmail: Money paid by a company (or allied company or individual) to acquire its own shares of stock from a shareholder who is threatening to take control of, or unwanted influence over, the company. The term is a neologism combining the terms greenback and blackmail, invented by journalists and commentators who saw the practices of corporate raiders as a form of blackmail. The target company is financially held hostage, and is legally forced to pay the greenmailer to go away.

Jonathon Weil makes some interesting observations about a recent unsolicited payment from Goldman Sachs to the Commonwealth of Massachusetts:

Trickle up poverty

Ed Yardeni once again nails it:

The politicians in Washington, DC have an advantage over many of us: They don’t work for a living. So they have plenty of free time to figure out ways to take money away from those of us who do. Working stiffs like us don’t have much time to stop them. We need a national Tea Party to check and balance the Kleptocrat Party running amuck on both sides of the aisle of our nation’s capitol. On April 15, there were tea parties in several cities around the nation to protest ballooning federal deficits and rising taxes. Most of the demonstrations were held during lunch time when people could get away for an hour from work!

The noose tightens

“You never want a serious crisis to go to waste — and what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you didn’t think you could do before.”--Rahm Emanuel

Today, governments around the world are taking power back from free markets, particularly financial markets, under the pretext that they have failed. In fact, the markets were hobbled by a combination of anti-market regulations and the lack of enforcement of regulations that leveled the competitive playing fields. In the US, the power grab is spreading to banking, autos, energy, and health care. Here is a brief chronology of recent developments around the world in this epic power struggle:

The Black Hole of fiscal responsibility

I'll withhold the niceties: anybody that thinks government is a good custodian of your current and future tax dollars is a moron.

Congress needs Google to find out where stimulus money went

On February 14, with the passage of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, Congress shoveled $787 billion of stimulus money out the door. Now they're using Google to find out where it went.
During the stimulus debate, the bill's supporters stressed that it included strong oversight safeguards. But audits and reports are months, if not years, away. Oversight will be after the fact; right now, with the money actually beginning to flow, members of Congress have little or no idea where it is going. What, for example, is the Department of Housing and Urban Development doing with the $1.5 billion Congress approved for a new program called the Homeless Prevention Fund? Lawmakers don't know.

Read the whole thing.


"No man's life, liberty or property are safe while the legislature is in session."--Judge Gideon Tucker 1866

Congress and NASCAR

Here's a great idea. Every member of Congress should wear a one piece uniform emblazoned with the icons of their corporate sponsors:

There's that saying...

Oh you know the one, something about pictures and what they're worth in words...

Budget deficit: past, present and future (source: Wapo)



This one has words and pictures. That doubles its value!

The Dodd Amendment

I do believe that the Obama administration and his congressional enablers finally have a plan in place to remove the last vestiges of faith in the federal government any of us may still harbor exempt their campaign contributors from having to take unsavory responsibility for their bad business decisions:

While the Senate was constructing the $787 billion stimulus last month, Dodd added an executive-compensation restriction to the bill. The provision, now called “the Dodd Amendment” by the Obama Administration provides an “exception for contractually obligated bonuses agreed on before Feb. 11, 2009” -- which exempts the very AIG bonuses Dodd and others are now seeking to tax.

He was for the bonuses before he was against them. John Kerry would appreciate that. Also, it's pretty rich that they want to "tax" these bonuses. As the tax laws already stand the federal government will get about 35% of the gross amount. And depending on what state the recipients live in, they'll be lucky to see 55% of the gross amount after the local governments are through.

AIG's earmarks

The latest outrage washing across the political landscape is over AIG's decision to honor a commitment to pay out $165 million in bonuses to certain employees. Obama has said that he will "pursue every single legal avenue to block" the payout.

At issue are retention bonuses for employees of AIG's financial-products division, whose credit default swaps brought AIG to the brink of collapse. The government controls AIG through an 80% equity stake and as a major lender and doesn't have legal authority to freeze payments on its own. The U.S. has committed $173.3 billion to AIG, including $70 billion from Treasury's rescue fund.

The mortgage plan is revealed

U.S. Sets Rules for Mortgage Modifications, 2% Mortgages

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- The Obama administration set loan modification guidelines for its $75 billion homeowner rescue plan, agreeing to pay lenders for altering troubled mortgages while reducing borrowers’ interest rates to as low as 2 percent.

2 percent? sign me up! Sadly, I do not think I'll qualify, as I am current in my mortgage payments and have chosen to not live beyond my means. However I am troubled by all of this government intervention in the mortgage market. Though I don't think that's the kind of "troubled mortgage" candidate they're looking for.

Geithner to fight himself; Obama channels Jim Cramer

Everytime I see Treasury Sec Geithner's mug on TV, this is how I envision him:


Geithner: Obama to fight international tax dodgers

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Barack Obama's Treasury secretary says the administration will unveil a series of rules and measures in the coming months to limit the ability of international companies to avoid U.S. taxes.

U.S. Bailout, Stimulus Pledges Total $11.6 Trillion

All information culled from Bloomberg:

The following table details how the U.S. government has pledged more than $11.6 trillion on behalf of American taxpayers over the past 19 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Changes from the previous table, published Feb. 9, include a $787 billion economic stimulus package. The Federal Reserve has new lending commitments totaling $1.8 trillion. It expanded the Term Asset-Backed Lending Facility, or TALF, by $800 billion to $1 trillion and announced a $1 trillion Public-Private Investment Fund to buy troubled assets from banks.

MBA, CFA, BFD

"MBA, CFA, BFD."

I once had a boss that used that phrase anytime some greenhorn equity salesman would try to impress him with their spit-shined education credentials. I always got a kick out of that, especially since he was a CFA chartholder himself, and several of my colleagues had either an MBA, a CFA or both. He was a cynical man

It is done

It looks like both houses of Congress have agreed to the 1,000+ page, $787,000,000,000 "stimulus" package that is going to save our country from the abyss.

Before you accuse our elected officials of vigorously scratching the itch to spend our children's money, remember, it could have been worse:

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the stimulus package will cost $787 billion, rather than $789 billion lawmakers estimated earlier this week.

That is what passes as fiscal responsibility on Capitol Hill.

And this, from San Francisco's favorite carpetbagging daughter:

“The jobs the American people care about most -- their own -- will be dramatically safer the day that President Obama signs this plan into law,” said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat.

The United States of Insolvency

This chart caught my eye over the weekend (from the Economist):

The biggest force behind the bond-market shock is the onslaught of new issuance as the government seeks to finance the gaping budget deficit, Fed liquidity programmes, mortgage purchases and bank bail-outs. Yields moved still higher this week partly on the Treasury’s

The time warp is stuck on continuous play

Trivia time! Guess the year of the following headline:

Fannie Mae to Loosen Rules for Home-Loan Refinancing

a) 1989
b) 1999
c) 2009

If you guessed "C" give yourself a prize!

From the article:

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae, the mortgage-finance company under government control, will loosen rules for homeowners seeking to lower their loan payments by refinancing.

Government front running

This is what happens when government front runs the private sector:

The notion of too big to fail

The following bubble chart compares the current market capitalization of our nation's biggest banks to what they were in the second quarter of 2007:

The chart is a little fuzzy, but the blue bubble represents Q2'07 and the green bubble represents Q1'09 YTD. The giant bubble with the tiny inset bubble that looks like the earth against the sun is Citigroup.

Keynesian Economics and Venezuelan Amerindians

Barron's takes a dig at Keynesian economics:

IN FACT, HALF A LOAF COULD BE BETTER FOR the economy, and better for Obama's ultimate treatment in the history books, not to mention his re-election odds. A $500 billion package -- say, 60% tax cuts and 40% increased spending -- could realize his stated aim of spending money wisely, while providing significant fiscal stimulus.One reason for caution is that priming the pump never quite works the way the textbooks say it should. The economy's lifeblood isn't consumer demand, but rather credit, both for the financing of business investment and the purchase of consumer durables like cars. No amount of fiscal stimulus will make much difference if credit is constricted. If credit is available, jobs and higher incomes will follow.

Posted so as not to be lost for posterity

Here are what I feel are the two most clearly written pieces I have read on the causes of the current economic crisis.

The first, Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-08, explains in simple terms the financial causes of our current predicament.

The second, Anatomy of a Trainwreck, explores both the political and the financial causes.

A trillion is the new billion

“Never confuse motion with action.” --Ben Franklin

This simple wisdom is apparently beyond the understanding of our elected leaders as demonstrated by the following headline:

Obama Warns of Irreversible Decline Without Action

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- President-elect Barack Obama warned that without immediate steps by the government to revive the economy, family incomes will drop, the unemployment rate could reach “double digits” and the U.S. risks losing a “generation of potential and promise.”