The Twin Frankensteins: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

The current liquidity gridlock and extreme volatility washing across all of our debt and equity markets has caused me to do some reflecting on what I think some of the possible causes may have been. Obviously, mortgage lending took a reckless and unsustainable turn. This is what I believe has been the major catalyst for our current state of affairs. (The second catalyst--and one I will not delve into in this piece--was a combination of the repeal of Glass-Steagall Act in 1999, the bursting of the internet bubble in 2000 and the subsequent squeeze on investment bank profit margins which led to their "all-in" approach to highly leveraged, high fee, structured investment vehicles).

In order to understand how this reckless mortgage lending began, a short history lesson is in order. In a word--regulation. Regulation driven by liberals and progressives, not free-market “deregulators” as the aforementioned would have you believe.

"New " Short Sale Rule

Even if you never pick up the business section of the paper, it has been hard not to notice that the stock market has been particularly volatile lately. Although there are numerous factors involved, most of the volatility has stemmed from the uncertainty surrounding the solvency of our nation's two largest mortgage lenders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as questions surrounding the balance sheets of some of the larger commercial and investment banks with large opaque mortgage portfolios like Wachovia, Washington Mutual, Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers.

Just as surely as blood in the water attracts sharks, volatility attracts short sellers. Yesterday the Securities and Exchange Commission announced an emergency order stating that they were going to crack down on naked short selling (i.e. selling shares you have not borrowed, nor have even a reasonable expectation of borrowing) in 19 of some of the most volatile and vulnerable financial stocks. Their plan will go into effect Monday.

Here are the highlights:

The carpenter and his tools

It's a poor carpenter who blames his tools for a shoddy job.

May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Moody's Investors Service said it's conducting ``a thorough review'' after the Financial Times reported that a computer error was responsible for Aaa ratings being assigned to complex debt securities that slumped in value.

In an up market the glitch is called a "feature." In a down market the glitch is called a "bug."

Banks obtained the highest grades in 2006 and 2007 for constant proportion debt obligations, funds sold in Europe that used borrowed money to speculate on an

The two faces of Citigroup

Banks, like all businesses outside of the non-profit realm, are in the business of making money. The difference between banks and most other businesses is that banks do not create anything tangible. Of course they make tangible products possible by providing financing for companies that do actually create things, but the value in a bank resides in the intellectual capital of its workforce.
Any industry that promotes the promise of a big payday tends to attract the most clever among us, and there is no shortage of clever people on Wall Street. It is safe to say that if it is possible to squeeze a dollar out of a rock, lever it to return $100 and charge 20% for the service, Wall Street has come up with 25 ways to do it.

Level 3 Asset Watch

DJ Merrill Level 3 Assets $82.4B At 1Q End, 8% Of Total Assets
Tuesday, May 06, 2008 4:37:57 AM (GMT-07:00)

Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) said Tuesday that its Level 3 assets at the end of the first quarter increased nearly 70%, to $82.4 billion, from $48.6 billion at the end of the fourth quarter.
The Wall Street firm said the Level 3 assets, which include assets measured at fair value on a recurring and non-recurring basis, increased because of the recording of trading assets, for which the exposure was previously recognized as derivative liabilities at the end of the fourth quarter.

Quantifying a WAG

Today several investment banks announced their share of Level 3 assets. In case you are wondering what level 3 assets are--and level 1 and 2 assets for that matter--the Wall St. Journal has this definition:

Level 1 is assets that have observable market prices. Think a stock traded on the NYSE.

Level 2 assets don’t have an observable price, but they have inputs that are based on them. Think an interest-rate swap where its components are observable data points like the price of a 10-year Treasury bond.

Level 3 is for assets where one or more of those inputs don’t have observable prices. This is the bucket that has been described as a guesstimate, because it is reliant on management estimates. As things stand now, companies who haven’t early adopted FAS 157 don’t give this more detailed breakdown to investors. So, one result of FAS 157 is more information.

Warren Buffet famously said that he never invests in things that he does not understand. I wonder how many

John Meriwether's 9...8...7...lives

Fool me once, shame on you.

Fool me twice, shame on me:

John Meriwether's Bond Fund Loses 24% on Credit-Market Plunge
2008-03-19 13:42 (New York)


By Katherine Burton and Saijel Kishan
March 19 (Bloomberg) -- JWM Partners LLC, the investment
firm run by ex-Long-Term Capital Management LP chief John
Meriwether, lost 24 percent in its $1 billion fixed-income hedge
fund this year through March 14, according to two people with
knowledge of the matter.

Mortgage Crunch "Solution"

Consequences be damned! It seems the solution to the increasing number of mortgage defaults by people who should not have mortgages in the first place is to place a 5 year freeze on their "teaser" rates which will give the banks time to "renegotiate" the terms of the loan and work through their increasing inventory of foreclosed homes.

Financial Models and Market Volatility

As anybody who pays attention to the stock market will tell you, these past few weeks have been particularly volatile. Volatility is what drives a market really. Volatility creates opportunity; it also destroys wealth if one is not careful.

The past few years have seen a major sea-change wash over Wall Street regarding the way it conducts business. Many jobs that were formerly carried out by a living, breathing person are now being done by a computer model, especially in the equities arena. But models are only as smart as the person programming them, and these past few weeks have been humbling for many "quant" guys to say the least.

The Green Side of the Sub-Prime Meltdown

Equifax recently announced the latest mortgage default levels: a record 2.87% nationally in the first quarter, with deliquency rates up in 44 of 50 states. Yet somehow, I don't think these particular sub-prime borrowers were in any danger of not meeting their mortgage obligations:

California is in the midst of a major boom in large-scale marijuana cultivation operations run from inside homes, with authorities confiscating more than $100 million worth of pot in the last year alone, including in a series of recent raids in the suburbs of Los Angeles.

Officials with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration say the number of indoor marijuana plants seized by federal, state and local authorities in California has

10 Reasons You Are Not Rich...

Unless you are, then you can please disregard this post and get back to livin' la vida loca...!

link

The reason why you aren't a millionaire (or on your way to becoming one) is really quite simple. You probably assume it's because you aren't earning enough money, but the truth is that for most people, whether or not you become a millionaire has very little to do with the amount of money you make. It's the way that you treat money in your daily life.

Here are 10 possible reasons you aren't a millionaire:

Naked Short Selling is not as Sexy as it Sounds

In the stock market, short selling is the practice of borrowing, then selling shares of a stock that you do not own with the intention of profiting by buying them back at a lower price at a later point in time. Shorts sellers get a lot of unnecessary negative publicity in my mind. They're really just part of the stock market eco-system. Often times they're the first ones to sniff out corporate malfeasance, and they add liquidity to the market overall.
Naked short selling is an altogether different story. Naked shorting involves selling short shares that you did not borrow, which means that when it comes time to settle the trade, you have no shares to deliver to the buyer.

Class Action Lawsuits

Homer Simpson once said of beer: "...the cause of and answer to all of life's problems." One could substitute "lawyers" for "beer" and the phrase would still ring true. Of course not all lawyers cause as many problems as they solve. Many are upstanding members of the community; professional, smart and ever-so-helpful when we need them. But there does exist in the litigation-ecosystem a certain breed of lawyers who often put their own interests ahead of both their clients and society in general; and they seem to congregate in the realms of personal injury and class-action.

Vonage is a Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) company that recently went public with much fanfare. The

Dictator's Dividend

Max Boot nails it in the LA Times today:

Of the top 14 oil exporters, only one is a well-established liberal democracy — Norway. Two others have recently made a transition to democracy — Mexico and Nigeria. Iraq is trying to follow in their footsteps. That's it. Every other major oil exporter is a dictatorship — and the run-up in oil prices has been a tremendous boon to them.
My associate at the Council on Foreign Relations, Ian Cornwall, calculates that if oil averages $71 a barrel this year, 10 autocracies stand to make about $500 billion more than in 2003, when oil was at $27. This windfall helps to squelch liberal forces and entrench noxious dictators in such oil producers

The Legacy of Robert Mugabe

Spin is an inherent part of storytelling. Everybody has a perspective, and the way they choose to spin a story reveals a lot about the storyteller.
Robert Mugabe has personally done more to destroy Zimbabwe than any of the numerous factors he blames for taking one of Africa's most productive exporting nations and placing it firmly on the road to just another hopeless African basket case in the space of approximately 5 years. At the heart of the problem lies his land redistribution program in which white owned farms were to be purchased at market prices and turned over to the black majority in a bid to equalize things following years of civil war and minority white rule. He went about this in a methodical way for a short time, but it didn't take long for him to resort to outright seizure of Zimbabwe's most fertile land in order to turn it over to political cronies with little interest in maintaining the