Thursday, January 6, 2011

Consuming ourselves

Bill Gross' most recent investment outlook likens our current fiscal path to the mating ritual of mantises. He has this to say:

The problem is that politicians and citizens alike have no clear vision of the costs of a seemingly perpetual trillion dollar annual deficit. As long as the stock market pulsates upward and job growth continues, there is an abiding conviction that all is well and that “old normal” norms have returned. Not likely. There will be pain aplenty and it’s imperative that we recognize now what the ultimate cost of blueberries will mean for American citizens of tomorrow. Four major factors come to mind:

1. American wages will lag behind CPI and commodity price gains.
2. Dollar depreciation will sap the purchasing power of consumers, as well as the global valuation of dollar denominated assets.
3. One of the consequences of perpetual trillion dollar deficits is the need to finance them, and at attractively low interest rates for as long as possible.
4. Trillion dollar annual deficits add up, and eventually produce a stock of debt that can become unmanageable: witness Greece, Ireland, or a host of Latin American countries of generations past.

Read the whole thing.